If John McCain keeps the map exactly as it is right now, Obama only has to take Ohio or Florida and can sacrifice all other red states and win the election. As you can see, Obama is up by just a hair in Ohio, and a point and a half in Florida. Please take note that this is a poll of polls: they're averaging several different polls to come up with a composite. But as that stands, here's the states on those toss-up states:
Nevada (5 votes): M - 47.7, O - 47.1
Colorado (9 votes): O - 48.9, M - 46.0
Minnesota (10 votes): O - 48.8, M - 45.2
Missouri (11 votes): M - 49.3, O - 45.8
Indiana (11 votes): M - 47.2, O - 45.4
Ohio (20 votes): O - 47.1, M 46.9
Virginia (13 votes): O - 47.8, M - 47.5
North Carolina (15 votes): M - 47.3, O 46.4
Florida (27 votes): O - 47.9, M 46.4
New Hampshire (4 votes): O - 46.2, M - 46.2
If none of these numbers change at all and are (by some weird coincidence) 100% accurate, Barack Obama wins 329-205, with New Hampshire's 4 still upstairs getting dressed and waiting until 2012 when someone will notice them again.
Not that anyone expects this post to be updated all that regularly anymore, I'm excited to say that next week will probably not see much on this page. In the next 8 days, 4 of my best friends* (one of which is a co-author of this page) will be getting married, and I'll be spending the gap between weddings in DC crashing on Anna's couch, so there will likely be some obscenity-filled debate coverage from one or both of us, but not much else. Expect updates when I get back, especially if I happen to run into Chris Dodd at the bar (which I'm not expecting, but you never know: the man has a rep for knowing how to party).
*[Apparently this requires clarification: there are two weddings in the next week, and I'm very close with the bride and the groom in both parties. This is not a 4-person wedding.]
No comments:
Post a Comment