Iowa

Tonight, of course, are the Iowa caucuses. I know I've been silent recently, but that doesn't mean I haven't been keeping up with what's going on there. What is going on there? Chaos. The pollsters are spinning in circles trying to figure out what's going on, and all their polls can tell them is that they don't know a damn thing.

The Democrats

Edwards, Clinton, and Obama have all been at the top of some poll or another in the last week or so, but even if they're not within the margin of error, they're still not comfortable enough to account for the double-digit percentages (and not small ones) of as-yet-undecided voters. When you throw in the viability rule, wherein backers of any candidate who doesn't meet a 15% threshold of support are asked to make a second choice, it gets even more confusing. The polls seem pretty certain that Edwards has the most to gain from second-choice support (which would seem to be why Joe Trippi is talking tough), but both Kucinich and Richardson have gone on record saying that his supporters should back Obama as a second-choice vote. Whether or not either of them have the organization and the loyalty to swing those blocs solidly as directed is very much in question, but is notable nonetheless.

My Pick:
Obama and Edwards will finish pretty closely. I think Obama will squeak out the victory, but no more than four points ahead of Edwards. The clear loser here will be Hillary Clinton, who is going into third by at least five, probably closer to ten points. I think that people who are currently backing Dodd, Biden, Richardson, and Kucinich are interested in a candidate they can love and not just accept, and that leads me to believe that working-class-warrior Edwards and the-future-can-be-bright-and-shiny poster-boy Obama are going to come out way ahead on second choice votes from that viability rule. I also think Hillary's biggest asset thus far has been her perceived electability, which I don't think will play well in a caucus environment this year. If you have to stand up in front of friends and neighbors and make a case for your candidate, you'd better have a good reason. In 2004, electability worked for John Kerry because the Democrats cared about little besides stopping George W. Bush. In 2008, we've got about six candidates that are legitimately qualified and capable of being a good Democratic president, and the GOP field is limper than a soggy pancake right now. Simply being "electable" isn't a good enough reason this year.

The Republicans

The GOP is in the exact opposite predicament. While the Democrats are stuck between too many good candidates, the Republicans have too many bad ones. Rudy Giuliani, while appropriately fascist and xenophobic to appeal on issues such as terrorism, is a god-awful candidate and everyone knows it. He has to deal with the "shag fund" scandal, the three wives, the hatred of his children, his history of moving in with gay men, his pro-choice views, his numerous on-record comments welcoming illegal immigrants, and possibly the most fatal, the fact that his "heroic" post-9/11 leadership wasn't really all that good. But it doesn't matter, because he's not running in either Iowa or New Hampshire, and after weeks of no press or bad press, and infinite hype behind 1-3 other candidates, his candidacy will be dead on arrival on Super Tuesday. Romney doesn't have nearly as many soft spots, but even if we leave out the Mormon issue, he still has to deal with the fact that every political belief and position he currently holds is a long way from where it used to be. If he gets the nomination, the Democrats won't even have to write any new material: they can just recycle old GOP "flip-flop" talking points from 2004, but replace "John" with "Mitt" and "Kerry" with "Romney." Can you imagine how funny it would be to watch a Democrat loudly campaigning against a "Massachusetts liberal?" Huckabee has the hype on his side right now, but it's starting to crumble. His strength with the Christian Right will end up being his weakness if he keeps playing it up as much as he is. The fundamentalists make a lot of noise, but when it comes to Beltway Republicanism, it's money that matters, and Huck is despised for his historical love of social spending. His own party would love to drop him for that one. Fred Dalton Thompson has the distinction of being the first presidential candidate to make narcolepsy into a contagious disease, and Ron Paul has managed to out-raise everyone in his party recently, and is still polling somewhere near Alan Keyes. There's only one candidate left, and he's old, cranky, and unpredictable enough that the GOP isn't going to like it.

My Pick:
Huckabee is going to take Iowa, with Romney coming in about five points behind him. The problem is, neither of them is going to survive their strong finishes there. Huckabee is a god-awful organizer, and his current place as a front-runner is based on a distaste for the rest of the candidates and not a solid and loyal support base. He'll take a few more states and win a respectable amount of delegates, but another month of intense press scrutiny will finish him by the time Super Tuesday comes around. The real winner is going to be McCain, who's going to pull in third with close to 20% despite having barely lifted a finger in Iowa. His victory will be on the strength of his convictions and his resume, and the hype will shift. Fred Thompson is going to bow out and hand his endorsement to McCain. The strong showing in Iowa will roll him well into New Hampshire, where he's going to stomp Romney. Romney has actually run a pretty good campaign, but it's hinged too much on two early states and he's going down in flames as he loses them both. The fun thing about seeing the GOP primaries is going to be watching the bloodbath: I do believe McCain will be the eventual nominee, but I think it's going to be hell getting there. Giuliani's late-state strategy was designed by a mathematician and not a psychologist, but he'll still pull enough to make a showing. As I said, Huck will pull a good showing from the Christian conservatives. Romney will pull just enough delegates to piss everyone else off, and lo and behold, you have a brokered convention.

Stormclouds on the Horizon

1) Ron Paul. There's no way his candidacy ends with not getting the GOP nomination. He's got too much money, and too much energy both from his dedication to his principles and from his rabid fanbase. He's not going to come anywhere near the presidency, but he's going to be a thorn in the sides of nominees from both parties.

2) Mike Bloomberg and Chuck Hagel. Mayor Mike is rich as hell and that tends to help things go his way. He's been successful enough on the surface as mayor of New York to look appealing, and having Chuck Hagel on his ticket would give him authority and standing within Washington. Hagel is a solid and respectable conservative, with the added bonus of being legitimately opposed to neo-conservative bullshit, and in favor of ending the war in Iraq.

The GOP is hobbled as it is already by a lack of money, a lack of good candidates and a lack of consensus on where they want to lead the country. Even if the strongest candidate (McCain) wins the nomination, he's still going to have to convince the country that we should continue the war in Iraq. If he has two extremely well-funded, right-leaning anti-war independent campaigns to battle, the race is lost already.

For a good hypothetical on the fall-out we're going to see tomorrow, depending on who wins and how, check out Chuck Todd's breakdown on MSNBC.

[LATE EDIT: The Political Wire is now reporting that Obama may have cut deals with both Biden and Richardson to give them run-off support in certain precincts where he can win easily, giving them a boost in their numbers, while they would give him support from second-choice ballots elsewhere. If he can push the second-tier candidates as close to Hillary as possible while still taking a victory, he's made both an electoral victory and a PR victory by putting HRC in the same league as the back-burner candidates. Either way, it shows organization, an ability to play the system to his own ends, and an ability to work with his opponents to get what he wants, all of which are absolutely essential qualities for a president. I don't think many people understand how smart Barack Obama really is, and I think they're going to be surprised.]