Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Rampant Speculation

It's looking, from the early results, that Clinton will take Ohio and Obama will take Texas. Everyone I'm talking to is asking me if Clinton will force this to the convention. The answer is I don't know. If Obama keeps the delegate count close or even in Ohio, takes Texas, and then announces 50 new superdelegates tomorrow, she's in trouble. That's when I think a lot more superdelegates will start moving, and she'll get pushed to move out by the elders. If she keeps the delegate count even in the states that vote today, those requests for a bow-out will have a lot less impact.

The math is still against her. The question is whether she's determined to get this now, or whether she's patient and is willing to help achieve unity within the party. I think she's smart and I hope that will lead to the latter, but I fear that her temperament may lead her to the former.

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