Friday, October 12, 2007

This just can't mean anything good

I have to say, for the sake of appearances I'm a bit conflicted about the Marine Corps' proposal to take over the war in Afghanistan and hand over Al Anbar to the Army. In some ways it could be perceived as a cut-and-run by the Marines, something we just don't do. To the general public, the war in Iraq is where the danger is, and Afghanistan - the one place we should be fighting a war if we've got to fight one at all - has largely been forgotten by the public and, seemingly, this administration.

Keeping up with appearances, though, should not deter us from doing what is most prudent and likely to be most effective for the war. In Iraq the Marine Corps has been forced into a role it is not well-suited for - that of an occupying force. The Corps' role is often (and in my opinion, stupidly) stated as "America's 911 force." We excel at speedy deployments and the bloody tooth-and-nail securing of objectives. The Marine Corps is the force best equipped to deal with guerrilla warfare. What we are not made for is the wholesale occupation of a former combatant country.

The Corps just isn't large enough, and I'm not sure if people realize this. Here's a look at the total number of active-duty personnel in each branch of the armed forces as of 30 April 2007:

  • Army: 507,082
  • Navy: 340,568
  • USAF: 340,921
  • USMC: 180,000

(please note that the US Coast Guard, 401,181 Coasties strong, is part of the Department of Homeland Security)

Tim had a very enlightening piece yesterday which illustrated, DoD-wide, the number of servicemen deployed in support of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. He also linked to a document which the Pentagon itself has sent him.

The Pentagon numbers state that, as of 31 August 2007, there were 35,121 Marines deployed in support of these two fronts. As there are no Marine Corps units in Afghanistan (and there have not been for some time), we can safely assume those individuals are located somewhere in Iraq. This number is significantly higher, by about 10,000 individuals, than what is widely being reported by the Pentagon and the media. I'm not going to speculate why there is such a gross discrepancy between the two figures, but I do find it worth mentioning to our readers.

The news reports indicate that there are approximately 26,000 Army personnel in Afghanistan, along with (presumably) several thousand members of the US Air Force. While the Army is incapable of performing air support for its ground units in Afghanistan and must rely on the Air Force, the Marine Corps possesses a full complement of aircraft and would be able to take control of all operations in the country.

This aspect of the plan makes good sense to me, though I can't claim to know all the details of the proposal. The with the Marine Corps assuming full control of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Army and Air Force could be relocated to Iraq, streamlining both operations.

The overall numbers make sense. What doesn't make sense is why this hasn't been thought of before, and why it is being implemented now. I suspect there has been a shift for the worse in Afghanistan. At the very least there must have been a shift in the nature of the mission, one which an entity so massive as the US Army is incapable of moving rapidly enough to address. Most likely, this change in the battlefield indicates that the situation in Afghanistan is unraveling rapidly and needs the quick reaction force the Marine Corps so capably provides.

If it seems that I am incapable of making firm conclusions about this change in policy, it is because I have absolutely no idea what we should infer from this. Bush's DoD certainly isn't going to tell us if the war in Afghanistan is as lost as the war in Iraq, so we're left to analyze the type of policy coming from the Pentagon. I can only say I'm ill-at-ease by this drastic change in plans, and pessimistic about what it entails. Given what the Marine Corps is truly good at, I'm forced to assume that the situation on the ground in Afghanistan is very bad indeed.

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